THE ARIZONA FACT BOOK ON VIOLENCE

Table of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

1.         INTRODUCTION                                                                                        

            Purpose and Scope of the Fact Book on Violent Crime                                                 

            Data Used for Deter mining Violent Crime Trends                                                                      

            Violent Crimes Defined                                                                               

 

2.         VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS IN ARIZONA AND THE UNITED STATES

            Overview and Summary Description of Violent Crime Trends                                       

Figure 1: Comparison of Violent Crime Rates: 1975-2000                    

Figure 2: Comparison of Murder Rates: 1975-2000                               

Figure 3: Comparison of Forcible Rape Rates: 1975-2000

Figure 4: Comparison of Robbery Rates: 1975-2000

Figure 5: Comparison of Aggravated Assault Rates: 1975-2000

 

3.         VIOLENT CRIMES BY ARIZONA CITIES, 1975-2000

Violent Crime Rates for Arizona Cities (population >10,000) by Year

 

4.         CORRELATES OF VIOLENT CRIME, 1995-2000

 

5.         VIOLENCE PREVENTION ELECTRONIC RESOURCES

General Information

Funding Information

Programmatic/ Resource Information

 

6.         REFERENCES


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This volume, The Arizona Fact Book on Violence, is one of several Fact Books published by Arizona State University West’s Partnership for Community Development to inform public policy and assist public and community-based organizations as they develop programs and services to address issues relevant to residents of Arizona.  The Fact Book’s intent is not to advocate for particular programs or political agendas, but to present data and other information that may be used as a basis for decision-making.  While not an exhaustive treatment of violence issues (in some instances statistics that would prove useful have not been compiled), this book attempts to provide a current examination of the set of issues implicated by violence in Arizona today.

 

I am appreciative of the contributions of Professors Gaylene Armstrong and Todd Armstrong, who researched, compiled, and developed this volume.  Dr. Mark Searle, Dean of the College of Human Services, ASU West, supported this undertaking in numerous ways as did Mr. Rick Miller and Ms. Shillana Sanchez of the Violence Prevention Initiative.  In addition, Ms. Nicole Kruse and Ms. Kellie Gutridge of the College of Human Services contributed to the development of this book.  Mr. Geoffrey Boyarsky provided design, production, and layout preparation.

 

I would also like to acknowledge the data collection efforts of the Federal Bureau of Investigation which annually collect and summarize the Uniform Crime Reports which provided the statistical basis for this report. In addition, I would like to acknowledge the assistance of Angela Kinnett, Miranda Watkins, and Daren Jensen, who are Arizona State University West undergraduates from the Department of Administration of Justice, for their valuable assistance in this endeavor.

 

In addition to the individuals who worked to develop and produce The Arizona Fact Book on Violence, it is important to recognize the support of its sponsors.  The Violence Prevention Initiative provided generous funding and support that made the development of this volume possible and I am grateful for the value to the State of Arizona they saw in producing a volume of this nature.

 

 

John Hultsman, Re.D.

Director, Partnership for

Community Development

College of Human Services

Arizona State University West

June, 2002

 

 

THE ARIZONA FACT BOOK ON VIOLENT CRIME

1. INTRODUCTION

 

In 2001, a national sample of U.S. residents ranked violent crime as one of the most important problems facing our nation today (Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, 2000).  In 1999, over 1,430,690 violent crimes were committed in the United States.  This translates into a rate of 524.7 violent crimes per 100,000 people.  While these statistics make it clear that crime remains an important problem in the United States and in Arizona, violent crime rates have been on a steady decline since the early 1990's when they reached twenty-year highs nationally and locally.  This decline is promising; however, violence remains an important problem in Arizona.  As of 1999, the state of Arizona ranked 16th highest in the United States for violent crime rates with the seventh highest murder rate, 15th highest robbery rate, 16th highest aggravated assault rate, and 29th highest forcible rape rate (Sourcebook for Criminal Justice Statistics, 2000). 

 

PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF THE FACT BOOK ON

VIOLENT CRIME

 

Addressing violent crime requires an understanding of the scope of the problem, a framework for organizing potential explanations of trends in violence and resources for prevention efforts.  The purpose of this Fact Book is to provide these requirements.  The Fact Book presents a variety of statistics complied by individual researchers, as well as local, state, and federal agencies, in an easy-to-understand format for citizens, practitioners and policy makers in the state of Arizona who are concerned with understanding and preventing violent crime.


To meet the needs of citizens, practitioners and policy makers this Fact Book has a number of specific goals:

 

·        Provide readers with a general working knowledge of the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) - a statistical database that disseminates information on crimes known to the police and arrests made by the police.  The UCR is used as the primary data source for the crime rates presented herein.

 

·        Present readers with graphical trends and detailed description of violent crime rates for the state of Arizona and its major cities over the past 25 years.

 

·        Present readers with graphical trends and detailed descriptions of specific types of violent crime in the state of Arizona, and its major cities.

 

·        Present readers with tabular data on violent crime rates for all cities in Arizona (populations greater than 10,000) over the past 25.

 

·        Provide readers with a brief, research-based review of community and individual characteristics that may have helped to shape changes in rates of violence that have occurred in Arizona.

 

·        Provide readers with detailed information on violence prevention resources that are electronically accessible including URLs current as of the publication of this Fact Book. Electronic prevention resources include programmatic resources, informational resources, and potential funding sources for crime and delinquency prevention efforts.

 

·        Present readers with references and citations that will allow for a more in-depth examination of the criminological literature that pertains to violence and violence prevention efforts.

This Fact Book is divided into six sections. The current section provides an introduction to the overall topic of violent crime and orients the reader to the data that will be used to describe violent crime in Arizona. Section two presents detailed information on the overall violent crime rate trends as well as individual types of violent crime for five jurisdictions – the United States, the State of Arizona, Phoenix, Tucson, and Flagstaff. Section three provides detailed tabular information for individual cities with populations greater than 10,000 residents on violent crime rate trends and individual violent crime types. Section four discusses potential explanations of violent crime trends in Arizona. Section five of this Fact Book contains numerous electronic resources that provide background information, programmatic information, and information on funding for program implementation and evaluation. For readers who wish to delve into further understanding the causes, correlates, and prevention of violent crime, we hope that Section five will provide a good starting point. Finally, Section six contains a number of references to GUIDE the reader to additional technical sources of information on the topic of violent crime.

 

VIOLENT CRIME FACTS

 

A myriad of scenarios come to mind when a person envisions an act of violence. Oftentimes, we picture a random act of violence perpetrated by a stranger against an innocent victim. We also tend to think of stereotypical criminal acts such as a young male offender, and perhaps even a vulnerable elderly woman as the victim.   Extensive descriptive information has been gathered by researchers that in some cases confirm these stereotypes but most often debunks myths about crime held by the public. For example, results in the criminological literature has demonstrated that:

 

·        Offenders tend to be males rather than females.  Females typically account for less than 20% of arrests for aggravated and simple assault and less than 10% of arrests for homicide and robbery.

·        The age of the typical violent crime offender is between 12 and 24, with a peak in violence rates occurring around the age of 18.

·        Males are victimized at rates approximately 40% higher than those of females (with the exception of sexual assault).

·        The age of the typical violent crime victim is between 12 and 24, with a peak in victimization rates occurring around the age of 18.

·        Teenagers are more likely than any other age group to be robbed.  Persons aged 16 to 19 were two times more likely to be robbed than those 25 to 34, and 10 times more likely to be robbed than those over 65.

·        In 1999, 63% of homicide victims were under 35, 12% were under 18.

·        Between 1993 and 1998, American Indians experienced violence at rates more than two times that of Blacks, 2.5 times that of Whites and 4.5 times that of Asians.

·        Increases in annual income are associated with decreases in violent victimization.  The income category with the highest rates of victimization is comprised of those who earn less than $7,500 a year.

·        Those who engage in crime are more likely to be victims of crime than those who do not engage in crime.

 

These crime facts have provided an informed position from which researchers have been able to focus on examining specific types of crime. This Fact Book will focus on the type of crime that tends to instill the greatest fear in the public - violent crimes.  While the above facts represent generalized knowledge about violent crime, an understanding of the violent crime problem in Arizona requires the study of the distribution of violent crime across crime type and over time. 

 

 

DATA USED FOR DETERMINING VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS

 

Beginning in 1930, police agencies have annually reported crimes occurring within their jurisdictions to the Federal Bureau of Investigation on a voluntary basis. This information has been aggregated and made available to the public each year through the Uniform Crime Reports[1]. The UCR presents detailed information on a variety of selected crimes and a composite measure known as the Crime Index, which has been widely used as an indicator of crime rates throughout the country. The Crime Index is composed of selected offenses that are used to gauge fluctuations in the overall volume and rate of crime reported to law enforcement across the United States.

 

It is important to understand that the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) are based on information from reported accounts of crime, or “crimes known to the police.”  This is important because citizens often do not report crime to the police.

Citizens fail to report crimes to law enforcement authorities for a variety of reasons including a fear of retaliation and/or embarrassment. Researchers have found that some types of crime, such as rape and domestic violence, tend to be more underreported than other crimes. Numerous other reasons have been noted by citizens for an explanation of why they did not report a crime to the police such as lack of importance (“it wasn’t a big deal”), distrust of the police, or citizens simply did not want to get involved with the criminal justice system.

 

When a citizen does report an event as a crime to appropriate authorities, the documentation of these reports become dependent on the police officers. Once the police are aware that an incident has occurred, the recording of the crime by the police through a police report becomes dependent on legal and sometimes extralegal factors. Some of these factors may include, but are not limited to, the technical qualifications of the incident as criminal, organizational pressures to increase or decrease the jurisdiction’s crime rate, police officer and offender interactions, as well as the professional style of particular police departments.

 

The data for the UCR depend on the reporting of crime by citizens and the recording of these crimes by law enforcement personnel in turn.  Due to this method of data collection, rates based on "crimes known to the police" underestimate actual crime rates.  Fortunately, alternative methods of data collection allow us to estimate the extent to which citizens fail to report crime to police.  One example of an alternative data collection method is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).  The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the NCVS in conjunction with the Bureau of Justice Statistics.  Data for the NCVS is collected from a random sample of US households.  Victimization data is collected for each household member over the age of 12.

 

NCVS findings demonstrate that not all of the crimes reported by victims through the NCVS were reported to police.  Depending on the crime type, up to 50% of victimizations are not reported to the police and therefore would not be included in the calculation of rates presented in the UCR.  The NCVS shows that reporting varies with offense seriousness. More serious crimes are reported more often.  In general, about one-half of all violent crimes, two-fifths of all household crime and slightly more than one-quarter of all personal thefts are reported to police. The exception to this trend is auto theft, which is the crime that is reported most often. One explanation for this exception is that frequently automobile insurance companies require a police report to process a stolen vehicle claim.

In addition to underreporting, the official recording of crime statistics has encountered a number of technical problems as well. Until the recent shift in the UCR toward the new National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) only the most serious offense was recorded even when multiple crimes have been committed during an incident. This style of reporting is referred to as the hierarchy rule. This technicality is another known source of measurement error in the historical reporting of the Uniform Crime Reports.

 

While these sources of error appear to make the reporting of crimes in the UCR a rather selective process, alternative measures of crime such as victimization surveys are subject to unique types of reporting error as well. The benefits of utilizing the UCR for this presentation of fact is that reporting “crimes known to the police” is the most widely used measure of crime and the longest used measures. Further, we are familiar with the sources of error and can take these sources under consideration in the weighing of evidence, and most importantly data are available across the country for comparison purposes.

 

DEFINITION OF VIOLENT CRIMES

 

Numerous variations on the definition of violence can be found in the criminological literature. One of the most common definitions suggests that violence is a behavior by persons, against persons, that intentionally threatens, attempts, or actually inflicts physical harm (Reiss and Roth, 1993). Throughout this Fact Book the Uniform Crimes Report is used as a source of data.  The UCR utilizes a categorical definition of violent crimes that is consistent with the definition offered above.

 

            The Uniform Crime Reports states that violent crimes are criminal acts that involve force or threat of force, which includes four types of offenses as violent crimes: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The Federal Bureau of Investigation provides the following crime specific definitions:

 

Murder and non-negligent manslaughter is defined as the willful (non-negligent) killing of one human being by another. Not included in this classification are deaths caused by negligence, suicide, or accident; justifiable homicides, and attempts to murder or assaults to murder, which are included in counts of aggravated assaults[2].

 

Forcible rape is the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. Assaults or attempts to commit rape by force or threat of force are also included; however, statutory rape (without force) and other sex offenses are not included.

 

Robbery is the taking or attempting to take anything of value from the care, custody, or control of a person or persons by force or threat of force or violence and/ or by putting the victim in fear.

 

Aggravated assault is an unlawful attack by one person upon another for inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault is usually accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. Attempts are included since it is not necessary that an injury result when a gun, knife, or other weapon is used which could and probably would result in serious personal injury if the crime were successfully completed.


2. VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS IN ARIZONA AND

THE UNITED STATES

 

This section of this Fact Book presents trends in violent crime rates covering the past 25 years, beginning in 1975 and continuing through 2000. In addition to descriptions of these trends, graphical comparisons are provided for the violent crime rate trends between the United States, the State of Arizona and three major Arizona cities – Phoenix, Tucson, and Flagstaff.

 

As noted earlier, the data presented in this report are based on Uniform Crime Report data collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in conjunction with the U.S. Census Bureau. The Uniform Crime Reports define violent crime as being comprised of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault (Refer to Definitions of Violent Crime in Section 1 for details).

 

It is possible that factors influencing violent crime rates will have an effect on a particular violent crime type that is different from its effect on other violent crime types.   For example, it is possible that fluctuations in the unemployment rate may have a more pronounced effect on economically motivated violent crime such as robbery.  Therefore, it is important that we examine both overall violent crime rate trends, as well as disaggregate violent crime rates by specific crime types and examine the trends of these individual crime types.

 

In the following pages, Figure 1 through 5 will illustrate the changes in overall violent crime as well as the individual crime types that constitute the violent crime measure. Each graph presents the rate of reported crime that occurred per 100,000 persons, beginning in 1975 continuing through to 2000. The crime rates were calculated as the number of crimes reported for that year divided by the population for that jurisdiction in the same year, multiplied by 100,000.

This equation provides the basis for the calculation crime rates by 100,000 persons:

 

Crime rate =           # of crimes reported          ­­­­­­          x 100,000

                         Reported population in jurisdiction

 

            The trend graphs for the multiple jurisdictions that are included in this section allow for three important comparisons to be made. The first type of comparison allowed is a within jurisdiction comparison. We are able to examine the variation in crime trends for a specific jurisdiction over time. The second type of comparison that we are able to make is a between jurisdictions comparison within the same year. Finally, the third comparison we are able to make is a comparison of between jurisdictions trends over time.

 

Five figures have been created to demonstrate the trends. Figure 1 presents trends in rates based on a composite measure of violent crime as defined by the Uniform Crime Reports. Figures 2 through 5 present the trends for the four types of violent crime included in the violent crime measure – murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault.

 

Numerous factors could be responsible for the intracity and intercity differences in crime rates. These factors are just one of the topics under debate by criminologists which has produced volumes of literature on the topic. It is beyond the scope and purpose of this Fact Book to fully explain the reasons for these trends. While an agreement on the reasons for these trends has yet to be reached, criminologists do agree that certain factors are antecedents or correlates of crime. We will briefly present a limited number of these factors in Section four.

 


Examining the Trends of Violent Crime Rates

 

Turning our attention to Figure 1, one of the first aspects evident is elevated violent crime rates for the cities of Phoenix and Tucson.  The rates for these cities not only surpass the violent crime rate in other Arizona cities and the rate for the state of Arizona, they are also substantially higher than the violent crime rate for the United States.  Further, elevated violent crime rates for Phoenix and Tucson are not a recent phenomenon.  Phoenix has had higher rates of violence as compared to the U.S. and the State of Arizona for the entire time period under consideration and Tucson has had higher rates of violence than the state of Arizona and the U.S. since 1979.

 

            A second point to note is that limited inter-jurisdiction variability is evident in Figure 1. That is, with a few exceptions for short time periods, there are larger or smaller differences between the different jurisdictions, for the most part the inter-jurisdiction variation for the jurisdictions remain relatively constant. The cities of Phoenix and Tucson experience the highest violent crime rates of these jurisdictions measured. The trends of the State of Arizona and the United States are very closely intertwined, while Flagstaff tends to have a violent crime rate slightly below the rest of the jurisdictions, with an exceptional spike in violent crime experienced by Flagstaff in the late 1980s.

 

Given the relatively consistent inter-jurisdiction variation, we are able to describe a pattern that is also consistent across groups over time. Beginning in 1975, the violent crime rates of these jurisdictions ranged from a low of 478 violent crimes per 100,000 persons in Flagstaff to a high of 707 violent crimes per 100,000 persons in Phoenix. With the exception of Flagstaff, violent crimes decreased from 1975 to 1976.  In 1976, a gradual increase in violent crime rates began in all of the jurisdictions under consideration.  This increase was most pronounced for Tucson and Phoenix and continued until approximately 1980, when rates of violence peaked for the first time in all jurisdictions with the exception of Tucson, where rates peaked in 1982. 

 

Following this initial peak, a downward trend was evident for the next three years. With the downward trend, violent crime rates returned to the rates experienced in communities nearly ten years earlier in Phoenix, and the state of Arizona; however, the violent crime rates remained slightly above the 1975 rates for the rest of the jurisdictions and significantly higher for the city of Tucson.

 

            Beginning around 1984, the entire country including the State of Arizona and its major cities experienced an increase in violent crime that would continue with some variability for approximately the next 10 years. Tucson and Phoenix surpassed all prior levels of violent crime during this time period setting record levels at nearly 1,000 violent crimes per 100,000 persons. Flagstaff experienced a dramatic spike in violent crime, peaking in 1988.  Individual crime type data indicate that this spike in Flagstaff was driven by a large increase in aggravated assaults. By 1989, the violent crime rates in Flagstaff return to pre-spike levels.

 

During the overall upward trend that occurred from 1984 to the early 1990's, there was some fluctuation in rates for the Arizona as a whole and the cities of Phoenix and Tucson.  These areas experienced a brief decline in rates of violence from about 1986 to 1989.  The brief period of decline in violent crime was short lived. With the onset of the 1990s, all jurisdictions with the exception of Flagstaff experienced a continuing increase in violent crime rates. While the U.S. as a whole experienced the overall violent crime trend peak in 1992 and remain stable for a couple of years before a gradual decline began, rates in Arizona continued to increased until 1995. Many theories have been provided for the rapid decline that is experienced for the majority of the country including Arizona during the latter half of the 1990s. Some of these potential explanations are discussed in section four of this Fact Book.  Fortunately, the decline in violent crime for the most part has resulted in a return to the violent crime rate levels that prevailed before the increases in violence that occurred during the mid to late 1980's and the early 1990's.

 



Examining the Trends of the Murder Rates

 

            Before fully describing the trends in murder rates, a cautionary note regarding the graphical display of crime trends in Flagstaff is necessary. The erratic nature of the Flagstaff murder rate might led the reader to posit that a rapid change in violence from year to year in Flagstaff occurred. However this is not the reason for this trend. In some years, Flagstaff experienced very low base rate (e.g., 2 murders), with an increase the following year (e.g., 4 murders). Converted to rates and shown graphically, these small changes in the number of crimes appear as dramatic increases or decreases. From examining the volume of crime we know that while the actual numbers of crimes that occurred did not increase or decrease dramatically. Thus, significant changes in the graphical presentation of Flagstaff crime trends must be viewed with caution. The reader is further encouraged to carefully examine Section three of this Fact Book, which presents the coinciding numerical data in detail by city. An additional cautionary note is warranted for 1983 in which it appears that a data point missing. The Uniform Crime Report lists this information as “not reported”.  One possible explanation for this occurrence is that no murders occurred in Flagstaff that year given the relatively low numbers of murders in prior years.

 

With cautions aside, we can proceed with the description of the murder rates over the past 25 years. The first notable fact evident from the murder rate trend is that the murder rate for the United States and the State of Arizona is relatively stable rate across the twenty-five year period. It is interesting to note that the murder rate in 2000 was slightly lower than the rate that existed 25 years ago. The murder rate for the U.S. was 9.6 murders per 100,000 persons in 1975 but only 5.5 murders per 100,000 persons in 2000. Similarly in 1975, the State of Arizona had a murder rate of 8.6 murders per 100,000 persons but in 2000, the murder rate was 7 murders per 100,000 persons. While some fluctuation occurred over the 25 years, no significant peaks were notable.

 

An in depth examination of the murder rate at the city level demonstrates a much different pattern as compared to the state and county trends. As indicated in Figure 2, in comparison to other jurisdictions examined Phoenix has a significantly higher murder rate. With the exception of 1976, the Phoenix murder rate is consistently higher than the national and state rates as well as all other major Arizona cities. A notable spike in the Phoenix murder rate occurred in 1993, which was an all-time high rate of 15.2 murders per 100,000 persons. After this spike, a dramatic decrease followed in the next 7 years with one small increase in 1999.

 

Interestingly, the large decline that was recently experienced in the Phoenix murder rate has resulted in a murder rate equivalent to the late 1980s level. This decline places the city at the same rate as before the large surge occurred in 1993. Most recently, the Phoenix murder rate experienced a dramatic declined from 17.5 murders per 100,000 persons in 1999 to 11.7 murders per 100,000 in 2000. However, despite this large decline between 1999 and 2000, the Phoenix murder rate remains significantly higher than the murder rates in other jurisdictions.

 

Tucson has generally experienced a murder rate similar to that of the State of Arizona with two notable departures from this general trend. The first departure was a large decrease in the murder rate that occurred in 1979. During this period, the murder rate dropped from 8.3 murders per 100,000 persons to 4.4 murders per 100,000 persons. However, by the following year, 1980, this anomaly disappeared with the murder rate returning to 11.5 murders per 100,000 persons.

 

The second notable change in Tucson’s murder rate trend was experienced in 1995. In 1995, a spike in the murder rate occurred which reflected the spike experienced by Phoenix in the previous year. Tucson’s murder rate nearly doubled, increasing from 8.4 murders per 100,000 persons to 14.4 murders per 100,000 persons. By the following year, the murder rate returned to a rate just above the pre-spike period. This decline was parallel to the trend experienced by the city of Phoenix.  The dramatic decline in Tucson’s rates from 1995 to 1996 was followed by a more gradual decline that was preceded by a small increase.  In the most recent data available for the years 1999 and 2000, Tucson has experienced an increase in the murder rate different from the trends of other jurisdictions. The murder rate has increased from 7.6 murders per 100,000 persons to 12 murders per 100,000 persons.  In raw numbers, an additional 28 murders were committed in Tucson in the past year.

 




Examining the Trends of Forcible Rape Rates

 

Figure 3 presents the graphical trends for the forcible rape rates by each jurisdiction between 1975 and 2000.  One of the primary facts that become clear in examining the forcible rate trends is that tremendous variation appears to have occurred within and between Arizona cities over time while state and national trends remained relatively stable for the 25-year time period.  It is important to realize that dramatic changes in rape rates that appear for Arizona cities are in part a product of the fact that forcible rape is a relatively rare occurrence.  For instance, from 1979 to 1980 there was a 37% increase in the rate of forcible rape in the city of Flagstaff.  This 37% increase was due to an increase of 9 incidents of forcible rape.

 

From 1975 to 2000, the State of Arizona forcible rape rate fluctuated between a high of approximately 45 forcible rapes for every 100,000 persons residing in Arizona to a low of approximately 30 forcible rapes for every 100,000 persons. Similarly, the national rate of forcible rapes has fluctuated between a low of approximately 26 forcible rapes for every 100,000 persons, to a high of 42 forcible rapes for every 100,000 persons.  In 2000, state rates were slightly lower than they were in 1975 while national rates were slightly higher.

 

This stable trend is interesting given that some researchers have argued that the reporting of a rape to law enforcement authorities has increased over time. Criminologists have argued that due to cultural decline in “victim blaming” and increased support and resources for victims of sexual assault, more victims report incidents to authorities. However, researchers also agree that sexual assaults including crimes classified as forcible rapes most likely remain as one of the most underreported crimes that occurs.

 

The three Arizona cities examined demonstrate interesting intercity variation and intracity variation. Flagstaff experienced the most volatile forcible rape rate over time fluctuating from a low of 35 forcible rapes for every 100,000 persons in 1975 followed by a dramatic increase that peaks in 1981 with 97.7 forcible rapes for every 100,000 persons in 1989.  Since 1989, the forcible rape rate in Flagstaff has declined and shown some signs of increasing stabilization near the State and National forcible rape rates.

 

The Phoenix forcible rape rate increased rapidly from 46.5 rapes per 100,000 in 1975, to 66.4 rapes per 100,000 in 1979.  Rates fluctuated around the 1979 rate during the early 1980's until a gradual decline began in 1985. This decline has continued throughout the 1990's.  In 1993, Phoenix rates declined to levels similar to State and National trends.  These declines continued through 2000.

 

The anomaly in this trend graph is the city of Tucson[3]. The rate of forcible rapes in Tucson was not very distinct from the other jurisdictions examined until 1980 after which Tucson began to experience a rise in forcible rape rates.  These rates stabilized in the late 1980's at a rate almost double that of other jurisdictions.  This period of relative stability was followed by another increase, peaking in 1992.  After this peak, there was a gradual decreased marked by increasing volatility in rates.  Rates peaked again in 1998 followed by a significant drop in 1999.  After this drop, forcible rape rates once again increased in 2000 where they were nearly double the rate in the U.S., State of Arizona, and cities of Phoenix and Flagstaff.



Examining the Trends of Robbery Rates

 

            Robbery rate trends in the jurisdictions examined demonstrate a significant amount of intracity variation, with substantially less intercity variation. That is, over the twenty-five year period illustrated in Figure 4, jurisdictions generally held their positions relative to one another regarding the number of robberies that occurred. The highest robbery rate was for the city of Phoenix followed by Tucson, and Flagstaff. The robbery rate for the U.S. was similar to Tucson’s rate for the first twenty years examined after which decreases in the U.S. rate resulted in lower rates for the U.S. relative to Tucson. The State of Arizona’s robbery rate was similar to the rate for Flagstaff for the first 15 years of the trend examined, after which decreases in the rate of robbery for Flagstaff resulted for lower rates for Flagstaff relative to Arizona.

 

            Trends robbery rates over time were similar across jurisdictions. Three pronounced peaks occurred between 1975 and 2000. The first peak occurred in 1980 and 1981 and was culmination of an increase that began for most jurisdictions around 1977. This spike in the robbery rate was most dramatic for the city of Phoenix. Generally, declines in the robbery rates were experienced for the next few years until the second peak occurred around 1985 and 1986. By comparison, the second spike in robbery rates was much smaller for all jurisdictions examined. The declines that followed were slight. Similarly, declines were minimal during the years that lead up to the latest rise in robbery rates, which occurred around 1990 for most jurisdictions.

 

While the third rise in robbery rates was almost insignificant in some jurisdictions, Phoenix experienced a 23.9% increase in robbery rates or an additional 66.4 robberies per 100,000 persons. Since the early 1990s, there was a very slight decline in robbery rates for most jurisdictions. As compared to other types of violent crime, robbery did not experience increases to the same dramatic extent as other crimes in the first few years of the 1990s, nor do the current rates reflect significant declines demonstrated by other crime types beginning in 1995.

 

The intracity variations of robbery rates were the greatest for the two major Arizona cities, Phoenix and Tucson. The rate of robberies in Phoenix ranged between a high of 392.9 robberies per 100,000 persons in 1980 and a low of 218.8 robberies per 100,000 persons in 1976. Two large spikes in the robbery rate occurred in 1980 and 1986. Both spikes were preceded by a rapid three-year increase. The initial spike in 1980 was followed by a three-year period of decline to prior levels of approximately 225 robberies per 100,000 persons. The second upward departure was much less dramatic as compared to the 1980 spike, and was followed by a rapid decline over the next year. The third peak in 1990 was followed by a gradual decline to the rates that prevailed in 1975. It is interesting to note that the trend in Phoenix is reflective of the National trend pattern but at a significantly higher number of crimes per 100,000 persons.

 

Tucson’s robbery rate was intertwined with the National robbery rate between 1975 and 1993[4]. Since 1993, Tucson’s robbery rate has demonstrated a dramatic upward departure from national trends, increasing 51.5% between 1993 and 1998. While rates for Tucson decreased from 1998 to 1999, they increased again from 1999 to 2000. The robbery rates for Flagstaff and the State of Arizona are relatively smooth in comparison to the other jurisdictions examined with the state of Arizona showing some fluctuation around a relatively steady robbery rate and Flagstaff showing minor variation around a overall slight downward trend.

 



Examining the Trends of Aggravated Assault Rates

 

The last type of violent crime examined was aggravated assault. As illustrated in Figure 5, there was an overall upward trend in aggravated assault rates from 1975 to the early 1990's for all jurisdictions examined.  During most of the period under consideration, the overall rates of aggravated assaults in two major Arizona cities, Phoenix and Tucson, were substantially higher than the National average. In contrast, the State of Arizona rate and city of Flagstaff rate closely mirrored the National average throughout the period with the exception of a three-year period in Flagstaff.

 

During the increases in rates of aggravated assault that occurred from 1975 to 2000, rates for jurisdictions included in this analysis peaked at or around 1980, 1985, and 1994. Each jurisdiction – City, State and National – experienced increases in the rates of aggravated assault leading up to 1980 and 1985. In general, the 1980 peak was followed by slight decreases in rates that preceded the increases leading to the 1985 peak.  The 1985 peak in rates was followed by a brief leveling of rate changes that preceded steady increases in rates that lasted until approximately 1994. The increase in aggravated assault rates that occurred in 1994 typified the trends across violent crime types with a large increase in rates followed by a sharp drop that continued through to 2000.

 

In contrast to all other types of violent crime examined, the city of Tucson demonstrated the highest rate of aggravated assault for the majority of the period under consideration. Although Phoenix’s aggravated assault rates superseded the Tucson rates in 1990, it was only temporary. Tucson surpassed the Phoenix rate in 1993. Tucson’s aggravated assault rate followed the general trend with peaks in its rates at 1980 and 1985; however, the most significant gain in aggravated assault rates were experienced a part of a trend that began in 1990 and continued upwardly until in 1995[5]. During this period, the aggravated assault rates increased 42.1% from 606.3 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons to 861.8 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons. This dramatic increase was followed by an equally dramatic decrease. Since the peak in aggravated assault in 1995, the rate has dropped to 535.5 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons, which is equivalent to a 37.8% decline.

 

The city of Phoenix aggravated assault trend typifies the three peaks pattern that occurred in all of the jurisdictions during the time period examined. Phoenix aggravated assault rate peaked in 1993 at 757.4 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons. Following the peak, Phoenix experienced a decline to 416.4 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons in 2000. This drop resulted in a 45% decline in aggravated assaults. A comparison of Tucson and Phoenix trends presents an interesting temporal sequence. Tucson experienced a decline in their aggravated assault crime trend approximately two years after the decline in aggravated assaults experienced by Phoenix. With alternative violent crime types, a similar temporal sequencing was present.

 

One final fact that requires attention is the unique and very dramatic increase and subsequent decrease in the Flagstaff aggravated assault rate between 1985 and 1989. Before 1985, the aggravated assault rate hovered between 250 and 300 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons. Beginning in 1986, there was a surge in aggravated assault began peaking in 1988 with 815.5 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons. This was a dramatic

170.4% increase or in terms of raw numbers, an increase from 202 aggravated assaults to 339 aggravated assaults. As quickly as these numbers rose, they declined. By 1989, the actual numbers of aggravated assaults returned to 142 incidents, or a rate of 322.5 aggravated assaults per 100,000 persons.




3. VIOLENT CRIMES BY ARIZONA CITIES, 1975-2000

 

This section provides crime rate information per 100,000 persons by individual cities in Arizona to supplement the state level and major city trend information presented in Section 2. The rates for Arizona cities were calculated from the data collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and presented in the Uniform Crime Reports using the following equation:

 

Crime rate =           # of crimes reported          ­­­­­­          x 100,000

                         Reported population in jurisdiction

 

The tables provided are inclusive of all city level information collected and available for five year increments beginning in 1975 through 2000. As evidenced in the tables, in earlier years some current cities were considered small towns having less than a 10,000 person population and were not included in the Uniform Crime Report. Thus, over time the number of cities presented increases.

 

The following cities with populations over 10,000 are included in the tabular data:


 

Apache Junction

Avondale

Bullhead City

Case Grande

Chandler

Douglas

Flagstaff

Gilbert

Glendale

Goodyear

 

Kingman

Lake Havasu City

Mesa

Oro Valley

Paradise Valley

Payson

Peoria

Phoenix

Scottsdale

Sierra Vista

 

Surprise

Tempe

Tucson

Winslow



 

1975

Crime Index

Violent Crime

Property Crime

Murder

Forcible Rape

Robbery

Aggr. Assault

U.S.

5281.7

481.5

4800.2

9.6

26.3

218.2

227.4

AZ (State rate)

8341.5

547.8

7793.7

8.6

35.5

170

333.8

Casa Grande

   9663.2

1397.3

8265.9

14.7

22.1

330.9

1029.6

Chandler

9838.3

419.3

9419.0

 

39.9

169.7

209.6

Douglas

11366.9

265.7

11101.3

16.1

 

 

249.6

Flagstaff

8163.9

478.2

7685.7

6.4

35.1

146.6

290.1

Glendale

7031.4

390.8

6649.5

14.9

23.8

120.4

231.8

Mesa

8323.5

272.9

8058.5

9.9

21.8

97.3

143.9

Nogales

5627.7

202.1

5425.5

 

 

31.9

170.2

Phoenix

11318.3

707.0

10623.4

11.2

46.5

289.7

347.5

Prescott

4879.2

402.7

4476.6

5.9

17.8

59.2

319.8

Scottsdale

7237.6

278.0

6966.0

6.4

12.8

120.4

138.3

Sierra Vista

3712.5

188.9

3523.7

 

24.8

14.9

149.1

Tempe

8231.6

418.6

7817.3

9.6

19.2

103.3

286.5

Tucson

10612.9

610.3

10006.9

12.1

45.9

236.7

315.7

Yuma

11010.3

954.1

10062.8

16.6

23.3

256.0

658.2

 

  

1980

Crime Index

Violent crime

Property crime

Murder

Forcible rape

Robbery

Aggr.

assault

 

U.S.

5950.0

596.6

5353.3

10.2

36.8

251.1

298.5

 

AZ (State rate)

8170.8

650.9

7519.9

10.3

45.2

193.6

401.8

 

Case Grande

12,426.0

1505.7

10,920.3

33.8

33.8

220.0

1218.1

 

Chandler

7268.3

607.9

6660.4

6.8

54.0

209.4

337.7

 

Douglas

6829.9

334.6

6495.3

7.6

7.6

53.2

266.2

 

Flagstaff

9523.0

554.3

8968.7

2.9

91.9

215.4

244.1

 

Glendale

6936.8

614.1

6322.7

3.2

28.0

185.3

397.6

 

Lake Havasu City

5984.3

408.2

5576.1

 

31.4

31.4

345.4

 

Mesa

8084.2

542.6

7541.7

6.7

41.4

129.0

365.5

 

Nogales

6407.5

408.1

5999.4

7.2

14.3

21.5

365.1

 

Paradise Valley

5825.0

286.4

5538.7

 

17.9

71.6

196.9

 

Peoria

6634.9

371.8

6263.1

 

48.5

56.6

266.7

 

Phoenix

11,453.6

908.3

10,545.3

13.3

62.8

392.9

439.3

 

Prescott

5542.6

373.5

5169.1

5.0

19.9

59.8

288.8

 

Scottsdale

9132.3

396.8

8735.5

4.6

19.4

176.7

196.1

 

Sierra Vista

3180.6

112.4

3068.1

4.0

4.0

28.1

76.3

 

Tempe

10,390.8

723.4

9667.4

6.6

71.5

187.2

458.1

 

Tucson

10,843.5

779.5

10,064.1

11.5

52.5

197.6

517.9

 

Yuma

8992.6

600.4

8392.1

7.1

38.1

126.3

428.9

 

 

 


 

 

1985

Crime Index

Violent crime

Property crime

Murder

Forcible rape

Robbery

Aggr. assault

U.S.

5207.1

556.6

4650.5

7.9

37.1

208.5

302.9

AZ (State rate)

7116.2

602.5

6513.7

8.0

45.7

146.5

402.3

Apache Junction

7896.1

993.6

6902.5

 

105.4

52.7

835.5

Case Grande

11,534.4

901.2

10,633.2

 

41.0

93.6

766.6

Chandler

9757.2

514.3

9242.9

 

37.3

124.2

352.8

Douglas

7765.1

452.9

7312.3

6.8

6.8

47.3

392.0

Flagstaff

8301.5

473.2

7828.3

5.2

41.6

124.8

301.6

Glendale

8762.6

678.0

8084.7

7.6

44.6

99.3

526.5

Kingman

12,106.2

1079.2

11,027.0

8.7

52.2

148.0

870.3

Lake Havasu City

4887.7

296.6

4591.1

5.5

11.0

11.0

269.1

Mesa

6993.3

553.8

6439.6

4.0

34.6

77.1

438.1

Nogales

6711.0

178.7

6532.3

5.6

5.6

27.9

139.6

Paradise Valley

3701.3

72.6

3628.7

 

 

21.8

50.8

Peoria

11,626.2

712.2

10,914.0

6.6

26.4

125.3

553.9

Phoenix

9264.5

844.3

8420.1

10.0

71.3

272.2

490.8

Prescott

5977.0

410.0

5567.4

4.3

34.1

90.0

281.6

Scottsdale

6341.7

253.1

6088.5

6.7

17.3

93.4

135.7

Sierra Vista

3704.4

84.6

3620.0

 

6.5

6.5

71.6

Tucson

10,026.7

973.4

9053.3

8.4

77.9

275.5

611.6

Yuma

9495.3

707.7

8787.7

26.4

64.9

127.7

488.7

 

 

1990

Crime Index

Violent crime

Property crime

Murder

Forcible rape

Robbery

Aggr. assault

U.S.

5820.3

731.8

5088.5

9.4

41.2

257.0

424.1

AZ (State rate)

7888.7

652.4

7236.4

7.7

40.9

160.9

442.8

Apache Junction

5917.1

397.8

5519.3

5.5

27.6

60.8

303.9

Avondale

9369.8

599.9

8769.9

12.4

74.2

123.7

389.6

Bullhead City

9056.5

523.9

8532.6

9.1

13.7

91.1

410.0

Case Grande

12,000.0

1409.7

10,591.1

 

52.4

193.9

1163.4

Chandler

7743.0

320.4

7422.7

1.1

24.3

85.1

209.9

Douglas

9889.3

390.0

9499.3

 

23.4

54.6

312.0

Flagstaff

8216.8

510.2

7706.6

6.5

41.4

122.1

340.2

Gilbert

5868.9

383.7

5485.1

3.4

17.1

20.6

342.6

Glendale

9192.4

726.3

8465.0

10.1

56.0

143.1

517.1

Kingman

15,013.4

542.4

14,471.0

7.9

39.3

86.5

408.7

Lake Havasu City

5351.9

336.5

5015.8

 

32.8

32.8

270.9

Mesa

7086.3

598.5

6487.9

3.1

33.0

95.5

466.9

Nogales

6295.9

236.0

6075.2

5.1

5.1

77.0

148.8

Paradise Valley

3427.3

85.7

3341.6

 

8.6

25.7

51.4

Peoria

4719.7

584.5

4259.4

2.0

138

33.6

410.9

Phoenix

10,756.4

1084.5

9671.9

13.0

52.1

344.0

675.4

Prescott

6293.7

514.2

5779.6

3.8

26.5

45.4